Perth Property Insider Ep. 42 – Perth Property Market Update: Spring into Action!

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Lots has been happening in the Perth property market and with the Spring selling season ahead it’s an exciting opportunity to make the right move.

For our quarterly update, I’ve conducted extensive research regarding the Perth property market to guide you in your real estate journey.

 Discussing the current figures on the Perth sale and rental market, property clock timing, the different factors and policy changes affecting the real estate market, and the economic highlights and predictions.

So make sure to stick ’til the end ‘cause I’ll be giving my tips on how to survive and thrive plus my crystal ball for what’s ahead.

It’s time to spring into action!

 

Highlights:

  1. Introduction [0:00]
  2. Perth sale market
    • Number of properties for sale [1:15]
    • Number of properties sold [2:15]
    • Perth property market inventory [3:15]
    • Perth house sales and median price [4:01]
    • Perth unit sales and median price [7:16]
    • Perth land sales and median price [8:17]
    • Perth listings and median selling days [8:50]
    • REA insights weekly demand index – buyers [9:34]
  3. Perth rental market
    • Number of properties for rent [10:25]
    • Rental vacancy rate [11:47]
    • Median house rent [13:02]
    • REA insights weekly demand index – renters [14:00]
  4. Property clock timing
    • National property clock: houses [14:54]
    • National property clock: units [16:11]
  5. Factors affecting the real estate market [16:29]
  6. Homeowner lending by state [20:15]
  7. Investor lending by state [21:14]
  8. All ordinaries – stock market [22:21]
  9. WA economy highlights [23:27]
  10. Economic forecasts for WA [26:09]
  11. Policy changes that impact the real estate market [28:15]
  12. Tips to survive and thrive [30:47]
  13. My crystal ball [32:09]

Transcription & Graphs

Hey, and welcome to another episode of Perth Property Insider. I’m your host, Jarrad Mahon. Today I’ve got my Perth property market update for you, and I’ve just completed some really intensive research in putting all of this together, I’m going to be taking you through the sale market, the rental market, also got some new insights to share on the economic clock and how the property clock fits within it, and I’m going to draw in how financing as well as the share market and the economy prices all come together to influence our house prices and property clock. So it’s going to be a very interesting new segment for you. We’ve also got a wrap up of the state budget, then my crystal ball and what I think is ahead. So let’s go inside.

The Perth Sale Market

All right, thanks for joining me. I’ve got so much to go through today, so let’s get stuck into the Perth sale market and what I’m seeing happening there. So if you’re watching the video, you can see the graphs, but otherwise I’m going to talk you through them.

Properties For Sale

When we look at the number of properties for sale, it’s continued to trend downwards mostly since June, 2019. So a very tight market still, but we have seen things taper off a bit and start to head sideways just in the last three to four months. Now, the number for sale is still remaining very low, we’re currently at 8,509, and that’s 20% down compared to a year ago. So a very tight market still, I was actually expecting a few more properties to be on the market for sale and for this number to start creeping up, but the demand for properties and number of buyers in the market has actually kept up and been very good.

Properties Sold

So the overall trend in the number of properties getting sold each week has continued to hit upwards. We had a quieter winter, but that’s normal and to be expected and we see that each year, and the sales are still up at around 900 sales a week. And I’m expecting a huge spring ahead, which is typically the highest sales volume period of the year. When both sellers bring their properties to the market, there’s lots of more activity from buyers. I think we’re going to see a lot of investors joining the market this spring, and a lot of tenants that have been wanting to get out of their rental situations to buy because rents continue to move up, they’re going to be out and about and wanting to secure a property too. So everything’s looking really good in terms of both our supply and demand side of things, and it’s still 5.3% up on the same time last year.

Inventory

So we’re going very well. Now when we look at our inventory, this is a stat that I brought in a few quarters ago and it really helps paint a good picture. So picture the inventory being how many properties we’ve got in the cupboard, and how many months worth of properties that we’ve got that we could sell. So this is plateaued and is holding steady at around 2.3 months worth. And you can see, we hit our height of nine and a half months worth back in January, 2019. We’ve continued to trend down, it’s more of a sideways trend over the last two or three months, but we’ll see how we go and where we end up out the other side in Spring. So we’re definitely still in a sellers market and that’s going to keep pressure on prices moving up.

Median House Price

So when we look at median house price, we’ve continued to rise and we’re now at $515,000.

So in June last year we hit our bottom of $475,000. So when you look at how the other states have gone, we haven’t performed as high as all of the economists and banks thought for the year so far, it’s been more of a crazy and much more confident, lot of growth in prices in Sydney and Melbourne and Brisbane. Brisbane’s got the Olympics that are happening. Sydney and Melbourne, they’ve seen a lot of growth over the last two or three years. So their confidence is up. I actually think what’s going to end up happening to them is, they’re so high in confidence – have seen so much growth. There’s a whole range of buyers that have never known a downward market there, and with the fever pitch buying that’s going on and with their lockdowns also keeping supply tight, they’re likely to overcook things and how we’re going about our growth is a lot more sustainable.

Our confidence is slowly building and when things have cooled off over there, people have got their equity. We’re already seeing many of their investors buying over here. Soon our house prices will have recovered enough that all the investors that hold existing properties and owners that have bought in the last five years, they’ll have their equity back. Many of them have (already)… are above water now, not below water. So they’ve actually got some positive equity in their properties and they’re starting to get in touch and see about refinancing.

They’re starting to make available that equity for use, and our local investors are going to be later to join the market and give us another big surge moving forward. So that’s what I’m seeing as an overall summary among the states and locally, and you can see that the trend has continued to head upwards since June last year for our median house price.

Now I wanted to do a little side note to median house prices. So it’s one of the most misunderstood statistics if you will, that any experienced investor doesn’t pay too much attention to the median house prices because it covers the whole of Perth, it’s just an indicator. So half of the properties are selling above that price. Half the properties are selling below. Now picture if we get a lot of activity in the lower end of the markets that can also not reflect in an increase in the median price, and we can also have many things that skew this. So you really need to… We just look at it as a really blunt indicator to tell how the overall market is going, but you need to be looking at your suburb, your suburb level, and there’s always markets within markets. So take that median house price with a grain of salt.

Everything is generally looking up across the board and make sure you’re check into your individual suburb and get in touch if you’re looking at making a decision to either buy or sell and we can help you through those things.

Median Unit Price

So when we look at the Perth units median unit price, you can see that did actually bottom back in September, and we’ve had about a 5% increase from the $375,000-$380,000 that we were at then, so now just hitting $400,000. So that’s a positive sign for units and when I look at the actual sales volume of units, it’s jumped up massively and we’ve had two strong quarters of many sales of units. So there’s a lot of good affordable buying in there. I don’t suggest that most investors get into the high density units, if you’re looking at units stick to the villas and townhouses.

And if you’re a home buyer trying to get into those too and… if you can, it’s always going to give you a larger land component, the land components what gives you your growth over time, and if you can keep it in well located better locations, then you’re going to have much better prospects for growth moving forward.

Median Land Price

So the land volume has dropped off massively and the median house price is just drifting between $235 and $240K and that’s to be expected, because grant’s washed through a lot of land prices late last year, and now things have really dropped off and everyone’s preferring established because why would you build when it’s going to take so long and you have to be very selective on your builder choice. Hopefully I’ve got some insights coming up in an episode with a builder friend of mine and stay tuned for that one.

Median Selling Days

Now, when we look at the median selling days, now I love this stat because it really gives us a much better idea of what’s happening, and what pressure there is in the market. You can see that we’re still down at 16 day average selling days as our median, very tight and anything really below 30 days shows that we’ve got strong, upward pressure and properties are selling very quickly and in many areas, including properties that I’m selling which I’m typically selling first to second week, unless it’s a bit more of a challenge property and we have to just go about trying to find the right buyer, but still usually getting it away within three to four weeks.

So very strong signs continuing for average selling time.

Buyer Search Demand

Now this is a new stat that I’m bringing you, and it’s the weekly demand index for buyers and it’s from realestate.com showing the search volume, and you can see it by the state level but I’m only interested in WA at the moment.

And you can see that we’ve got a continual upward trend in this weekly demand from buyer searches, that’s a very encouraging sign. It’s gradually moving upwards. The units have been moving up at a lot larger rate. So that reflects what I’m talking about earlier in terms of the volume picking up of actual people buying units, and the houses is slowly drifting up, slowly gaining more and more confidence and more people searching. So, that’s good to see.

Perth Rental Market

Now when we get stuck into the Perth rental market, the number for rent has continued to steeply decline. So we’re at just 2,300 properties for rent, and I really do feel for the tenants that are out there struggling to find a place, go back and check out one of my episodes on how to make your rental application stand out, that’s been very helpful for a lot of tenants.

I appreciate getting some good feedback on that, and I’m glad to have helped some people secure their rental properties sooner.

Property For Rent

So just 2,300 properties for rent when we were at one stage had 11 and a half thousand, can you believe that? That is insane. So we’ve had a 14% decrease over the last six months and a 25% decrease over the last year. And that’s just continuing to get tighter and tighter, it’s not likely to change until more investors get into the market and add more rentals to the mix or some of the tenants that are building their houses eventually have them built and are able to start moving out. And think about it, every new entrant that is getting into the state is also renting initially, and hopefully the borders will again, start to become a bit more open between the states but they’ve been very shut of late.

So this would be even tighter and even less properties for rent if they had of been open. Now, when we look at the rental vacancy rate, our portfolio internally about 780 properties is at just 0.3% rental vacancy rate. Whereas the overall Perth agency rate is at 1.2%. So we’re running a very tight ship at the moment. And we certainly like to minimize any vacancy for our landlords and saying that we’re always very focused on leasing not just in good markets but bad markets, but in good markets such as this, it’s always good to save an extra week’s rent and get it paid to our clients.

Rental Vacancy Rate

Now, when it comes to the rental vacancy rate, we hit our tightest levels earlier from October last year onwards to around May, we were sitting at 0.8 to 0.9% rental vacancy. And in the last couple of months we’ve actually moved up to 1.2%.

So a very gradual move up in the vacancy rate, and you may have heard me say in the past that anything less than 3% generally sees upward pressure on prices still, and given the number of properties for rent is so tight. I expect this to remain low and keep putting upward pressure on the rental prices.

Median Rental Price

So rental prices have continued to trend upwards. They have been flat for the last two to three months at $450 per week. So I’m looking to see if it’s going to nudge up again in this September quarter when we go through spring, I expect that it will because the number of rentals is just so tight, and from what we’re seeing in our portfolio, our rental prices are continuing to go up every time we lease a property. So our average rent for our portfolio is now at $398, and it was at $350, so we’ve probably got some more room to increase to get to the $450 that’s happening across the whole of Perth.

Now our previous high that we ever got to was $480 a week. So I expect us to at least approach and get to that and we may see that before the end of the year, wait and see, hey.

Tenant Search Demand

Now I’ve also got the weekly demand index for renters on realestate.com and it looks like we’re just trending sideways and the weekly demand it’s still 20% up on the average demand that we were getting before COVID, so it’s still very high, relative to the past before we went through COVID in 2019. So it did hit its peak for search interest online in January, February this year.

And it’ll be interesting to see whether that was representative of the seasonal change in tenants looking to move house across the break, and whether we’ll see that again this coming year and how close to it we’ll get, but that’s still supportive of all the other data that I’ve got there to show that the rental market is holding up very well in WA.

Houses Property Clock

Now, the property clock is showing where each of our major cities are at around the country, we’ve got Perth still in a rising market, but one of the notable changes since I last came to you in July is that the Southwest of WA has changed its status around to approaching its peak of the market.

Now I’d expect that’s probably right, even though I don’t keep data for the Southwest intimately, we’re seeing very earlier and large increases in holiday and these country destinations, especially with the push of COVID pushing people out of the Capital, but now that things have calmed down for Perth and we’ve had little to no lockdowns touch wood, it’s been great.

I’m thinking that that demand is going to taper off as well (For south west), and prices have increased a lot in the Southwest. So this is the affordability factor to consider, so we’ll see what happens with that.

Perth is still around in a rising market, and you will see if you’re watching the video, the majority of major cities in the whole of Australia are in a rising market too.

Unit Property Clock

When we look at units, the unit market is also around in a rising market now officially. So it wasn’t, I think the start of recovery back in July. So officially now around in a rising market and the Southwest is also labeled as being approaching its peak of the market.

Factors Affecting Our Market

So now we’re going to take a deep dive into the factors affecting our market, and I’ve got a number of new insights to share with you here, so hang in there and let’s really get stuck into it.

Economic Clock

Now I wanted to take you through what they call the economic clock, and it really helps to see how property fits within the cycles of both the availability of money and interest rate levels, how it fits with share prices and how it fits with commodity prices. So if you’re able to see the chart, you can check out the video or the transcription, but where… As far as the economic clock is concerned, we’re in a rising real estate values market at 12 o’clock.

And now some of the things we need to look out for that will start to slow the rising of real estate is, we need to look out for the rising of interest rates that has typically occurred first at 1:00 o’clock.

We need to look out falling share prices. So even when falling share prices start, a lot of that money will move into property and property will still have longer to go than shares. So shares usually change first and start to head down that money flows into property.

Especially because we’re so dependent on mining and our minerals and petroleum and the whole mining industry here, when we start to see commodity prices for that effectively means there’s less demand for the buying of these commodities because again, what pushes prices up? More demand, less demand, commodity prices start to fall. And so that will affect our overall economy, especially here in WA. And as each of these things happen we then start moving into a bear market where interest rates are rising, so people don’t want to finance as much… Money’s harder to get.

I don’t want to use leverage as much, share prices have decreased, so people who got less overall money to use in things and commodity prices that they decreased affecting our overall economy. And so then we’d move around in the cycle.

So I’m going to start reporting on each of these factors. Obviously I’ve previously touched on interest rates, but I’ve never really gone into share prices and commodity prices. And because they’re so important to the overall mix of how our economy is functioning and ultimately how these things come back around to affect real estate. I’ll be touching on them today, as well as future market updates as well, to give you a better context on how things fit together.

Finance

Now, when we touch on the finance, we can see that the rates are still being left on hold since November last year. So money is still cheap, still readily available. And that is what is keeping it easier for borrowers to look at purchasing at the moment.

It’s really fueling our real estate market and you should be paying under 3% loan interest if you’re on a variable rate. And some of the fixed interest rates have started to slowly increase and it could be worth looking at fixing your interest rate, chat to your financial planner or finance broker for more input on your situation.

And there’s low rates forecasted for the next three to five years, maybe it would be more like two to three years because our economies have been performing so well, but it’s likely to at least be low for the shorter term ahead.

Home Owner Lending

So homeowner lending by state, we’ve got a graph in the show notes that you can see and WA has dropped off in homeowner lending in the last two to three months as have the majority of other states, except for Sydney, New South Wales has just continued owner-occupier homeowner lending ramped up massively.

So that’s why I’m also pretty concerned about where they’re headed and the cliff that they’re going to start to approach to fall off, but we’ve had more of a sustained run of owner-occupiers compared to Sydney and Melbourne and things have just come off a little bit and started to decrease a bit.

So we just need to see how that stabilizes, it was still at historical highs, so it couldn’t continue ramping up forever. And normally what happens in this phase of the cycle is we start to see investors takeover, which brings me to my next point.

Investor Lending

Where you can see that investor activity in WA has gradually been increasing, whereas it was rampantly increasing in Sydney. We’ve had a rampant rise in Queensland. We’ve had a rampant rise in Melbourne with a bit of a pullback, but we’re slowly increasing in WA and in South Australia.

And I’m actually happy that it’s going to be more steady… Our growth is looking to be a lot more sustainable this time, and we’re slowly building that confidence up and investors are slowly increasing as a percentage in the market.

First Home Buyer Lending

And the first home buyer activity, you can see on the graph that has dropped off in all states and without exception and that’s a result of the initial grants being so attractive, getting all the market in and now it’s still at historical highs as in terms of how many first home buyers have been in the market in the past, but it’s decreasing month on month at the moment, that’s the finance piece, it’s looking really solid and really good with money available still.

Share Market

Now, when we look at the share market piece, I’m taking a good look at the all ordinaries at the moment.

And we have seen a little bit of a decrease in the last two to three months. It’s still in line with the longer term upward cycle and things have started to bounce back a bit over the last month, but because we’re so mining dependent as well on the share market. That brings me to my next slide, but I guess larger picture to things, the share market is looking good still, that’s not going to continue forever and… but it’s looking like it should continue its upward trend at least for the shorter term. So let’s keep checking in on that.

When that starts to turn, we’ll probably expect more money to flow out of the share market and into real estate, so that we’ll help fill out the rest of our boom period, if you will.

WA Economy

So when we look at the overall economy then, and some of the mining influences and get a feel for commodity prices and how they’re affecting the economic clock, I was… This is a very nice highlights of our economy, and I’m just going to touch on a few of them.

But if you’re checking out the slides there’s a lot more there you can see, but we’ve had a massive record of 904 million tons of iron ore exported. And we’ve had a massive level of lithium, 793 million worth. So we are officially the world’s largest producer of iron ore and the world’s largest producer of lithium. I didn’t realize we were so high in lithium side of things.

So that’s really taken the challenge to iron ore and it’s become a major exporter for us, because when you look at the two of them, they’re significantly higher than all of the other minerals and petroleum that we export for the state.

Iron Ore Prices

So when I actually look at the prices for iron ore and in a moment lithium, we can see that iron ore actually hit its peak back in July and it started to decrease and we need to see where this is going to end up landing.

So we had a massive run across from April, 2020, and we’re now returning to more historical levels. So will this continue to decrease? We really need to keep an eye on this because such a large percentage of our overall exports, 66% of all mineral and petroleum sales in 2020 was iron ore, it’s so dependent on this iron ore.

Now that crazy price of over $200 a ton, couldn’t continue indefinitely. We’re now down at, I think $125 dollars a ton. So let’s see what happens to that in the coming months, but it is a bit of a sign that there could be some weaknesses ahead if that continues to decrease.

Lithium Prices

Now, when we look at the lithium prices and lithium chart here, you can see that that has continued to trend sideways to slightly up, and it had its massive increase in December last year.

And so that’s also looking very good as far as its price and very good for the export of our lithium.

Economic Forecasts

So when we also now come back and look at some of the economic forecasts for the state, these factors lead into our economy as well, WA is obviously dependent on mining, but here’s the big picture to things.

So our state final demand is expected to grow by 5%, which is going to be the highest growth level that we’ve seen. We had 4.5% in the last financial year. We’re expected to have 5% in this next financial year, then moving forward in the years after that, we’re expected to taper off quite a bit. So it’s looking like all the state forecasters think that this next financial year it’s going to be our biggest, and then we’re going to start to taper off after that. So we’ve still got plenty of upside ahead over the next year, and still in positive territory after that to be as expected.

And we can also see from the unemployment rate, we’ve gone from 6.1% during COVID and over the last financial year, we’re now down and expected to be at 4.75% unemployment rate, that’s very, very low historically. And the forward estimate is for that to stay at 4.5% for the next three years after the next year.

So from employment point of view it’s looking very good. Population is not expected to really have any major increases this year and next year, but it’s looking like they’re expecting a return to 1.1% and 1.3% in the two years after that. So it’s going to take a while for our borders to open up and to see migration happen.

So in general, all of that is looking very good. I’d prefer if there was a bit more depth to the expected state final demand, not just over this next financial year but after that, we’re still in positive territory of growth but it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

State Budget

So what else have we had happen that’s going to impact our overall real estate market? Well, we had the state budget announced last week and there was 875 million budgeted for the investment in social housing, which is great because we’d have had a real growing issue with people falling through the cracks and not able to rent privately from the private housing.

So that’s great that the government is providing for that. They’re also pushing back some of the infrastructure projects to extend our boom, and I thought that was very smart. So that’s why with the things being so crazy over the last year and projected to be over the next year, I think it’s very good to be moving, start dates back and extending project timelines, so that we’re going to see a smoothing out of our spend on infrastructure, and I think that’s going to be very good for extending out our boom and having a softer landing to things.

And they’ve also announced a two year extension to off the plan stamp duty rebates, so at the moment at 75%, they’re going to be decreasing that to 50%, but extending it for two years. So yes, that will help more people get into purchasing of and off the plan apartment if they wish to.

One of the big things they missed out on doing is there was no commitment to stamp duty reform, and REIWA and other industry bodies was certainly hoping that they would tackle the changing of stamp duty. It could have given our market a real boost here for both investors and first-time buyers, that’s for all of us, have to pay such high level of stamp duty and REIWA was calling for an introduction of a two stream revenue collection method for stamp duty, so you could either pay upfront or pay as you go.

And they were wanting some stamp duty relief for those aged over 65 to have a concession on $10,000 worth of stamp duty, but now we’re changing down and downsizing their house and they also wanted to remove stamp duty on the purchase of small business and just make it easier to buy and sell small businesses, which made a lot of sense.

None of those things have been covered in the state budget, which is disappointing. We’re just going to have to see if we can lobby them and get it to happen over time. But if it was going to be announced, it would have been announced this week, so…

Tips to Survive & Thrive

Now tips to survive and thrive our market, my actions have not changed much since July at all, because things are still looking good ahead and there’s plenty of runway to get into the market.

And so it still makes a lot of sense to upgrade your home or buy an investment property in the best area that you can afford and where should you buy it? Well, you can get in touch and get our buyer pack for my recommended suburbs that are likely to outperform based on past proven history.

So look at the link in our show notes and go through and request a strategy session. I can get that organized for you, and most properties have now increased 10 to 20% from their low point.

So consider selling if you did want to look at getting out because it’s always hard to have a guarantee on how much longer things will continue, but I do expect there to be some more runway ahead. Consider accessing your equity now because you should be able to get better valuations and use that to get into the market with an investment property while we still got time ahead.

Ensure your rent increases are passed on, if you have a great property manager, you don’t worry about that. Just remember that you can only increase rent every six months, so make sure it’s done to the best extent possible while balancing the needs of your tenants and where they’re at.

My Crystal Ball

So my crystal ball hasn’t changed too much either, which I guess shows that my predictions is still accurate and I expect them to be on par. So rents are likely to continue to increase over the next six to 12 months. It’s now cheaper to buy than rent in 110 suburbs, can you believe that? I think we’re managing in 220 suburbs. So it’s cheaper to buy than it is to rent in at least nearly half of Perth suburbs, which is crazy. So there’s a very big incentive for tenants to get out and buy their own homes.

They’ll continue to be a low in land and new home sales, more sellers are bringing their property on the market now since the prices are back, and I expect there to be a very big spring selling period ahead. Investors have now started to come into the market and we’re still mainly seeing investors from over east not locals, but with the rental market still looking so good and with us being so affordable compared to the other capitals, I think we’re the lowest median house price of any capital in Australia.

At one stage, we were second most expensive only to Sydney. So that’s how affordable we are and there’s such potential to buy here and potential for upside. So established homes and units in the more affordable areas are starting to experience growth now, and I’m expecting 10% for most of them for 2021.

And units have already had 5%. So I’m expecting another 5% before we finish out the year for units, we’ll see prices continue to rise in the well located areas that… coastal and well established with good schools, so I’m expecting 15 to 20% growth for 2021 on those.

And we’re going to have to wait two to three years for immigrants to go into the demand mix but that will be coming, and we need to remember that that’s going to kick our market up again when it starts to happen.

Further Help

Looking to Sell

So, for further help, if considering sale, got a complimentary appraisal, also got a special offer at the moment where I’m sending my sellers along to the Bodhi Spa for a relaxing couples massage because I’m all about having no stress, and also getting the best price possible.

So you can go to www.investorsedge.com.au/appraisal to get an updated sale appraisal, if you considering and looking at that.

Subscribe for Updates

Make sure you’re subscribed to my property investor update, that’s at www.investorsedge.com/join

And you can get six monthly suburb data reports for any of your suburbs of interests, really, we prepare those every six months for all of the suburbs that we managing, helps people know where things are at on the ground and see where things likely be heading.

Buying & Investing

And if you do want to look at your investing strategy, where to buy, get my assistance on reviewing individual properties, go to www.investorsedge.com.au/strategy

I also have a one-on-one mentoring service and it can help you avoid the mistakes and make a really good purchase.

Signing Off

So thank you so much for joining me today. I know I covered off a lot. Everything’s looking really good for the Perth market. We’re slowly gaining more and more confidence, I think there’s going to be more investors in the market ahead for spring, and we’re going to have a massive spring selling season. So catch you on the next one, bye.

 

Resource Links:

 

About Our Host:

Jarrad Mahon is the go-to guy in property management and investment in Perth, giving you his insider view on the Perth market and the strategies needed for you to grow your wealth and improve your life. All you need to do is to stay tuned!

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